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Entry 003 · Outcome brief 3

Confidence intervals and p-values, said plainly

Results rarely come as a single tidy number. They come with a range and a probability, and both are easy to misread.

The range around the number

If a study reports an improvement with a 95% confidence interval of 2 to 9 points, the true average effect is plausibly somewhere in that range. A wide range means more uncertainty.

What a p-value is not

A p-value of 0.03 does not mean there is a 97% chance the treatment works. It is a statement about the data under an assumption of no effect, and it is often misquoted.

Statistical versus practical

A tiny difference can be statistically clear in a very large study and still be too small to notice in daily life. Researchers discuss this as clinical significance.

Questions worth asking

When you read a result, ask how big the effect was, how wide the range is, and how many people were studied. A doctor can help put any result in context for you.

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